PREVIEW-Soccer-Table-topping United face testing nine days

LONDON, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson has presided over enough festive fixtures to know rotation is the key as he prepares for a busy period starting with the visit of Newcastle United in the Premier League on Wednesday.
A disappointing 1-1 draw at Swansea City on Sunday saw United's lead at the top cut to four points over Manchester City and maximum points at home to Newcastle and West Bromwich Albion and away to Wigan Athletic are on Ferguson's holiday menu.
He can take heart from the fact that Newcastle, who languish in 14th place, have not won at Old Trafford since a 2-0 victory in the old first division way back in 1972.
Ferguson has been cheered by the return of key defenders from injury including Serbia international Nemanja Vidic, who made his first start since September at Swansea, and Jonny Evans, who also started the match in Wales.
"We now have three games in the next nine days," said Vidic. "Obviously we have a few players who are coming back from injury and they will be important for that period."
Ferguson was true to his word about utilising his squad over the seasonal holidays by fielding his 26th different back-five combination this year at the Liberty Stadium.
United's problems in defence are reflected in the 25 goals they have conceded so far - the highest by a team topping the Premier League at Christmas since Norwich City, who had let in 34 goals by the same stage of the 1992-93 season.
That has not deterred Ferguson from making changes.
Asked in the build-up to the Swansea match if he would rotate his squad, the Scot told MUTV: "Absolutely. No doubt. It won't be the same team in any of these games. There will be changes each game."
MIXED BLESSING
All of England's top flight clubs play on Dec. 26 in the traditional Boxing Day programme except Arsenal and West Ham United, whose match at the Emirates Stadium has been postponed due to a planned London Underground strike.
Manchester United will be mindful that being top at this time of year has been a mixed blessing. In the 20 completed seasons since the formation of the Premier League in 1992, the leaders on Dec. 25 have only won the championship nine times.
Norwich City, Aston Villa, Leeds United, Arsenal (twice), Newcastle United (twice), Liverpool (twice) and Manchester United (twice) have all failed to lift the trophy after celebrating Christmas Day at the top of the tree.
Manchester City's title chase continues on Wednesday at Sunderland where they have only won twice in their last five visits. They went down 1-0 at the Stadium of Light last season after Ji Dong-won struck in injury time.
But City have acquired the knack of scoring late winners and Gareth Barry's strike against Reading on Saturday ensured they entered the Christmas period breathing down United's neck. They visit Norwich and host Stoke City after the Sunderland game.
Third-placed Chelsea are next up at Carrow Road and will be in high spirits after putting eight past Aston Villa, who had never conceded that many goals in a top-flight match.
The Blues have finally found their shooting boots under new manager Rafa Benitez, who has even found a way to get fellow Spaniard Fernando Torres scoring again.
The London side trail Manchester City by seven points but have a game in hand over the top two.
Captain Frank Lampard, who became Chelsea's highest scorer in the top flight with 130 goals after scoring in the 8-0 win over Villa, said the team were finding their rhythm.
"I think we showed a great appetite. The early goal helped. We are enjoying playing again," he said.
RELEGATION BATTLE
At the other end of the table, the battle to avoid the drop is heating up, with Queens Park Rangers hosting seventh-placed West Brom and bottom side Reading welcoming mid-table Swansea on Wednesday with the two sides desperate for home wins.
They both missed out on earning a point last Saturday and their respective managers vented their frustrations as the pressure of trying to avoid relegation mounts. QPR and Reading are five and six points away from the safety zone respectively.
Fifth-placed Everton, who have lost only twice in the league this season, continue their fight for a top four finish at home to Wigan, who are 18th and in the final relegation position.
Sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur, level on 30 points with Arsenal, Everton and West Brom in the battle for a Champions League place, travel to Paul Lambert's Villa, who will be desperate to restore some pride after the debacle at Chelsea.
Liverpool visit Stoke City looking to build on Saturday's 4-0 home win over Fulham as they also chase European football.
Southampton could slip into the bottom three if they fail to get a positive result at struggling Fulham, who will themselves be looking to make amends for their poor display at Anfield.

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Marseille cling on with leaders after beating St Etienne

PARIS (Reuters) - Andre Ayew struck just before the break to give Olympique Marseille a 1-0 home win against St Etienne on Sunday and keep them level on points with leaders Paris St Germain.
As Ligue 1 goes into a three-week break, OM are third with 38 points, behind pacesetters PSG and second-placed Olympique Lyon on goal difference.
St Etienne, who last beat OM at the Velodrome in 1979, are 10th with 27 points from 19 matches.
The game got off to a rather dull start with neither team creating chances and Marseille looking cautious having lost their last two home games.
Marseille, however, went ahead on the stroke of halftime when Ghana striker Ayew, who will play in the African Nations Cup with the Black Stars from January 19 to February 10, headed home from a Rod Fanni cross.
Josuha Guilavogui was set up by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang but Steve Mandanda dived into the midfielder's feet to deny St Etienne an early opportunity to equalise two minutes into the second half.
Fanni cleared Aubameyang's strike off the goal line 15 minutes from time to keep his team ahead.
Andre Ayew then came close to doubling the tally in the 85th minute after being set up by his younger brother Jordan, only for his low shot to be blocked by Stephane Ruffier.
Earlier, Valenciennes moved up to sixth on 29 points after goals by Gregory Pujol and Jose Saez gave the Northerners a 2-1 win against visiting Evian Thonon Gaillard.
Toulouse, who had bagged only four points from their last eight games, beat Sochaux 2-0 courtesy of goals by Adrien Regattin and Emmanuel Riviere.
On Saturday, PSG claimed a 3-0 win at Stade Brest and Lyon beat Nice 3-0 at home.

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Soccer-Liverpool eager to extend Gerrard contract

Dec 24 (Reuters) - Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers has expressed his desire to extend Steven Gerrard's contract as soon as possible to ward off potential suitors for the inspirational Reds captain.
The 32-year-old, who has 18 months left on his current deal, capped a dynamic performance with a clinical goal in Liverpool's 4-0 home win over Fulham at the weekend.
Rodgers, who took over from Kenny Dalglish at the start of the season, asserted that Gerrard remained a pivotal part of his plans at Anfield.
"I don't think there's any question (we want to extend his contract," Rodgers told Liverpool's official website (http://www.liverpoolfc.com).
"It's vital. Steven has a real hunger to succeed. He's 32 years of age but he's still got so much left."
Liverpool's talismanic England midfielder had been linked with a move to Chelsea after the team's famous victory over AC Milan in the 2004-05 Champions League final in Istanbul.
Jose Mourinho, then Chelsea manager and now in charge of Real Madrid, remains an admirer, while even Manchester United boss Alex Ferguson speaks highly of Gerrard.
"He applies himself every day, he eats well, rests well, recovers well, works well," said Rodgers, who has begun to get Liverpool playing more consistently in recent weeks.
"This is a guy who has led his life focused purely on being a footballer. And that allows you to go on playing well into your 30s."
Gerrard provided two assists on top of his sharp finish against Fulham and has played in every minute of Liverpool's 18 Premier League games this season.
"The run that he made for the goal, he's been doing that all season but the ball has just never arrived," Rodgers added.
"He's still been making the runs and his influence within the team has been outstanding.
"His influence for me, especially once he's started to understand what I'm looking for, has been absolutely first class."
Rodgers added: "(Against Fulham) he had everything in his game, and he's been an inspirational captain for us. I want him to stay beyond his current contract. There is absolutely no question about that.

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Soccer-Lampard hails David Luiz's midfield display for Chelsea

LONDON, Dec 24 (Reuters) - David Luiz is sparkling like a diamond in his new playmaking role and vice-captain Frank Lampard believes the Chelsea number four can be equally valuable to the team in midfield and in his usual position in defence.
The mop-haired Brazilian bustled and chased around Stamford Bridge like an over-exuberant puppy in Sunday's 8-0 demolition of Aston Villa but he also showed the full range of his ball skills with some incisive passing and deadly accurate shooting.
"He has the ability to play either position and he's been a fantastic central defender," Lampard told the club's website (www.chelseafc.com) on Monday after the European champions climbed to third in the Premier League.
"People say that central midfield is also a role for him and I think they are right. You still have to have discipline and be in the right position, and you can't take liberties, and against Villa he showed he has the discipline and the ability to do that role."
Chelsea fans have been imploring the club to utilise Luiz's creative talents in midfield for a long time but new interim manager Rafael Benitez is the first coach to play him in that position.
The Brazilian occupied the role for the first time at the Club World Cup in Japan at the start of the month and he marked his second appearance as a playmaker by scoring with a dipping 20-metre free kick in the first half against Villa.
"You don't see the hours put in on the training pitch to work on that technique," Lampard said.
"David has done it and now you are seeing the rewards because every time we get a free kick in that area you fancy him to get it on target."
CROWD DARLING
It was Lampard, though, who was the darling of the crowd on Sunday.
The 34-year-old England international's contract ends this season and he said earlier this month that this could be his final campaign at the club he joined in 2001.
Lampard was given a standing ovation when he was substituted in the second half against Villa, with the supporters crying 'sign him up' over and over again.
"The fans have supported me from the first minute I arrived and I appreciate them doing that," the midfielder added. "I try to play well for them."
Lampard grabbed the fourth goal against Villa with a typically venomous long-range thunderbolt.
The former West Ham United player now has 190 Chelsea goals, three behind the club's second highest scorer Kerry Dixon and 12 adrift of Bobby Tambling.
"I am very pleased with our win," Lampard said. "We showed everything we are about when we are at our best and I am pleased to be a part of that and to contribute with a goal as well.
"We showed great appetite from the first minute with our desire to move the ball quickly and the early goal (by Fernando Torres) helped."
Chelsea, who are now seven points behind Manchester City and 11 adrift of leaders Manchester United with a game in hand on both clubs, next travel to Norwich City on Wednesday.

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Liverpool eager to extend Gerrard contract

Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers has expressed his desire to extend Steven Gerrard's contract as soon as possible to ward off potential suitors for the inspirational Reds captain.
The 32-year-old, who has 18 months left on his current deal, capped a dynamic performance with a clinical goal in Liverpool's 4-0 home win over Fulham at the weekend.
Rodgers, who took over from Kenny Dalglish at the start of the season, asserted that Gerrard remained a pivotal part of his plans at Anfield.
"I don't think there's any question (we want to extend his contract," Rodgers told Liverpool's official website (http://www.liverpoolfc.com).
"It's vital. Steven has a real hunger to succeed. He's 32 years of age but he's still got so much left."
Liverpool's talismanic England midfielder had been linked with a move to Chelsea after the team's famous victory over AC Milan in the 2004-05 Champions League final in Istanbul.
Jose Mourinho, then Chelsea manager and now in charge of Real Madrid, remains an admirer, while even Manchester United boss Alex Ferguson speaks highly of Gerrard.
"He applies himself every day, he eats well, rests well, recovers well, works well," said Rodgers, who has begun to get Liverpool playing more consistently in recent weeks.
"This is a guy who has led his life focused purely on being a footballer. And that allows you to go on playing well into your 30s."
Gerrard provided two assists on top of his sharp finish against Fulham and has played in every minute of Liverpool's 18 Premier League games this season.
"The run that he made for the goal, he's been doing that all season but the ball has just never arrived," Rodgers added.
"He's still been making the runs and his influence within the team has been outstanding.
"His influence for me, especially once he's started to understand what I'm looking for, has been absolutely first class."
Rodgers added: "(Against Fulham) he had everything in his game, and he's been an inspirational captain for us. I want him to stay beyond his current contract. There is absolutely no question about that."

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Mexico frees ex-Marine jailed for bringing in gun

A Marine veteran jailed for months in Mexico after trying to carry a family heirloom shotgun across the border has been freed, U.S. officials and his lawyer said late Friday.
The attorney for 27-year-old Jon Hammar tweeted Friday night that his client had been released from a detention center in Matamoros, Mexico.
"Jon is out, going home!" Eddie Varon Levy tweeted.
Patrick Ventrell, the acting deputy spokesman for the State Department, confirmed Hammer's release and return to the U.S. in a statement Friday night.
"Officials from the U.S. Consulate General in Matamoros met him at the prison and escorted him to the U.S. border, where he was reunited with members of his family," the statement said. "We sincerely appreciate the efforts on the part of Mexican authorities to ensure that an appropriate resolution was made in accordance with Mexican law, and that Mr. Hammar will be free to spend the holidays with his loved ones."
An aide to a legal representative of the Mexican attorney general's office had told U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson's staff about the pending release after the Florida Democrat's office got word from Hammar's mother, according to a press release from Nelson's office.
"No American should be in a Mexican jail for five months without being able to have his case in front of a judge," Nelson said in that statement. "We're grateful; this is a good Christmas present."
Earlier Friday, Varon Levy said he was flying from Mexico City to Matamoros to pick up his client. After that, the attorney said, they intended to cross the border at Brownsville, Texas. "I'm very happy. I feel that the Mexican legal system came out the way it should have," he said.
U.S. immigration and State Department officials had been at the Mexican detention center waiting for Hammar's release.
A defense lawyer said Mexican authorities determined there was no intent to commit a crime, Nelson's office said. The senator was among a handful of elected officials who urged the State Department to help get Hammar out of Mexico. His family had said he was being held in isolation after threats to his safety were received.
"These past few months have been an absolute nightmare for Jon and his family, and I am so relieved that this whole ordeal will soon be over," said U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., in a statement. " I am overcome with joy knowing that Jon will be spending Christmas with his parents, family and friends."
The attorney, Varon Levy, said the path for Hammar's return was cleared when Mexican officials decided not to appeal the judge's ruling.
Civilian gun ownership is illegal under Mexican law unless the owner purchases the weapon from a special shop run by the country's Department of Defense.
"The Department of State warns all U.S. citizens against taking any type of firearm or ammunition into Mexico," the U.S. Embassy in Mexico writes on its website. "Entering Mexico with a firearm, certain types of knives, or even a single round of ammunition is illegal, even if the weapon or ammunition is taken into Mexico unintentionally."
Mexican law also bans shotguns with barrels of less than 25 inches. The family said Hammar's shotgun has a barrel of 24 inches.
Tourists are allowed to bring guns for hunting on rare occasions, but Mexican officials said all visitors must receive a special permit before entering the country. Mexican customs agents do not issue gun permits. As a result, anyone crossing the border with a firearm or ammunition without a previously issued government permit is in instant violation of Mexican law, which stipulates long jail terms for breaking weapons laws.
Hammar and his friend were on their way to Costa Rica in August and planned to drive across the Mexican border near Matamoros in a Winnebago filled with surfboards and camping gear. Hammar asked U.S. border agents what to do with the unloaded shotgun. His family said agents told them to fill out a form for the gun, which belonged to Hammar's great-grandfather.
But when the pair crossed the border and handed the paperwork to Mexican officials, they impounded the RV and jailed the men, saying it was illegal to carry that type of gun. Hammar's friend was later released because the gun did not belong to him.
Before Hammar's release, Varon Levy said he was not sure of his client's immediate plans upon being freed. "Probably some down time," he said.

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List of 1000s of missing raises doubts in Mexico

Federal police officer Luis Angel Leon Rodriguez disappeared in 2009 along with six fellow police as they headed to the western state of Michoacan to fight drug traffickers.
Since then, his mother, Araceli Rodriguez, has taken it into her own hands to investigate her son's disappearance and has publicized the case inside and outside Mexico. She's found some clues about what happened but still doesn't have any certainty about her son's whereabouts.
As Mexican troops and police cracked down on drug cartels, who also battled among themselves, Leon was just one of thousands of people who went missing amid a wave of violence that stunned the nation. A new report by a civic participation group has put a number for the first time on the human toll: 20,851 people disappeared over the past six years, although not every case on the list has been proven related to the drug war.
With at least another 70,000 deaths tied to drug violence, the numbers point to a brutal episode that ranks among Latin America's deadliest in decades. In Chile, nearly 3,100 people were killed, among them 1,200 considered disappeared, for political reasons during Augusto Pinochet's 1973-1990 dictatorship, and at least 50,000 people disappeared during 40 years of internal conflict in Colombia.
The new database is shedding needed light on Mexico's unfolding tragedy. It's also sparking angry questions about why it doesn't include all of the disappeared.
Neither Rodriguez's son nor his six colleagues who went missing on Nov. 16, 2009, are in the database, which was allegedly leaked by the Attorney General's Office to a foreign journalist. The group Propuesta Civica, or Civic Proposal, released the data on Thursday.
Rodriguez's mother said she's been in touch with authorities investigating the case and has spoken about it in several public forums about the missing.
"I don't think any government entity has a complete database," she said.
A spokesman for federal prosecutors, who would not allow his name to be used under the agency's rules, said the Attorney General's Office had no knowledge of the document.
As compiled by Civic Proposal, the report reveals the sheer scope of human loss, with the missing including police officers, bricklayers, housewives, lawyers, students, businessmen and more than 1,200 children under age 11. The disappeared are listed one by one with such details as name, age, gender and the date and place where they disappeared.
Some media in Mexico have reported that the number of missing could be even greater, at more than 25,000, with their estimates reportedly based on official reports, although media accounts didn't make the reports public.
"We're worried because several of the people gone missing in the state of Coahuila, and that we have reported to authorities, don't appear on the database," said Blanca Martinez of the Fray Juan de Larios human rights center in that northern border state. She's also an adviser to the group Forces United for Our Disappeared in Coahuila, made up of relatives searching for loved ones.
Martinez said that between 2007 and 2012 the group registered 290 cases of missing people. The database released Thursday lists 272 cases in the state since 2006.
"We have no doubt that the authorities have done absolutely nothing" to solve them, she said.
Public attention to Mexico's disappeared has grown especially since 2011 when former President Felipe Calderon publicly met with members of the Movement for Peace with Justice and Dignity, a human rights group led by poet Javier Sicilia. His son was allegedly killed by drug traffickers that same year.
Sicilia's movement demanded that the thousands of killed and missing should be treated as victims of the drug war, even if they were criminal suspects. Calderon's government responded that it would create a missing persons database, but authorities have not made it public so far. Calderon also ordered the creation of a special prosecutor in charge of assisting crime victims and supporting the search for the missing.
"There is nothing worse for me than having a missing relative. Not knowing where the person may be is very serious and so ... in every case that comes to us, we try to find a solution, to find the person," said Sara Herrerias, the head of Provictima, the office established by Calderon to help crime victims.
Herrerias, however, was cautious talking about the number of missing and said she could only discuss the cases that her office has dealt with.
In 14 months, she said, Provictima has handled the cases of 1,523 missing people, most of them allegedly taken by members of organized crime but with some cases also reportedly involving government authorities. Of the total number, 150 people have been located, 40 of them found dead.
Herrerias declined to talk about the possible magnitude of disappearances. "I don't like to talk when I don't have hard data," she said.
Estimates of the missing vary. The National Human Rights Commission, which operates independently from the government, has said that some 24,000 people were reported missing between 2000 and mid-2012, in addition to some 16,000 bodies that have been found but remain unidentified.
The government of President Enrique Pena, who took office Dec. 1, estimates the number of unidentified bodies at about 9,000 during Calderon's previous six-year administration.
Civic Proposal director Pilar Talavera said that although her group saw inconsistencies in the database, they decided to disclose it not only to help the public understand the scale of the violence, but also to pressure authorities to disclose official information on disappearances.
While the numbers help, what the relatives of the missing need most, of course, is to just learn what happened to their loved ones.
Since the disappearance of Rodriguez's then-23-year-old son, a dozen alleged members of the La Familia drug cartel have been arrested as suspects in his case. Rodriguez said she has interviewed four of them, who have told her that her son and the other six officers were killed and their bodies "disintegrated."
She said that so far no one has given her any clues about where her son's remains are.
"If it's true what the criminals say ... even with that, my heart asks to find Luis Angel," Rodriguez said. "For me Luis Angel is still missing.

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3-day trip becomes 3-week ordeal for 2 Jamaicans

 It was supposed to be a three-day fishing trip at most. It turned into a three-week ordeal, drifting under an intense sun for hundreds of miles in the Caribbean in a small boat with a broken motor.
The two Jamaican fishermen survived by eating raw fish they caught and drinking water from melted ice they had brought to preserve their catch. The Colombian navy finally plucked them from the sea a week ago and delivered them home Saturday after treating them for severe dehydration, malnutrition and hypothermia.
Everton Gregory, 54, and John Sobah, 58, recounted their story in a telephone interview from Jamaica, while the boat owner and the men's employer also provided details.
The men set off from Jamaica's southeastern coast on Nov. 20. The water was glassy, the wind was calm and their boat was laden with 14 buckets of ice, 16 gallons of water and several bags of cereal, bread and fruit.
They headed to Finger Bank, a nearby sand spit 8-miles-long (13-kilometers) that is known for its abundance of fish like wahoo, tuna and mahi mahi. The owner of the 28-foot (8-meter) boat said she usually joins them on fishing trips, but she couldn't go that afternoon.
After spending a couple of days around Finger Bank, the two men set off for home with their catch. But the boat's engine soon died. The water was too deep to use the anchor and the current too strong to use the oars, so the boat slowly drifted away from Jamaica.
At first, the men got by on sipping the water and eating the food they brought with them. But days turned into weeks, and they began to eat the fish they had caught and drink the melted ice that had kept it fresh.
Gregory and Sobah kept eating raw fish and used a tarp to try to collect water, but the rain clouds remained at a distance.
Back home, friends and family called police and used their own boats to search the area where the men were last seen. The two fishermen work for the Florida-based nonprofit group Food for the Poor, which chartered a plane to search along Jamaica's coast.
Marva Espuet, the owner of the boat, said she knew she had packed it with more food and water than needed for a three-day trip, but the thought provided little relief.
"If I had gone, there would have been two boats going," said the 52-year-old woman, a longtime friend of both fishermen.
With searches proving fruitless, Sobah's niece grew frantic, recalled Nakhle Hado, a fishing manager for Food for the Poor who helped lead the search. She "begged me that she wanted John back for Christmas," Hado said.
Hado said some people believed the two men would never be found, but he and others didn't give up. "My gut was telling me that they were still alive," he said.
Hado said he had trained Gregory and Sobah on how to survive at sea.
"In case something happens, they don't have to think twice. They know how to react," he said. "It's very important, their mental state."
Gregory and Sobah finally ran out of fresh water and went several days without drink. A healthy human being can die from dehydration anywhere from three to five days without water.
Then on Dec. 12, a Colombian navy helicopter patrolling off the coast of that South American country spotted the men near Lack of Sleep cay, more than 500 miles (800 kilometers) from where they started. It took two days for a navy vessel to reach them because of bad weather. The men were hospitalized for several days at the Colombian island of San Andres before boarding a plane back home to Jamaica.
"It feels good," Sobah told the AP in a brief phone interview after arriving.
Gregory said he had lost hope, but Sobah tried to keep him positive that they would be rescued. "I just had that belief," Sobah said. "I believe in the Creator."
Yet it is Gregory who plans to keep fishing despite the ordeal because he needs the job.
Sobah said he's done. "I'm not going to go fishing again. No way.

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Peru's capital highly vulnerable to major quake

The earthquake all but flattened colonial Lima, the shaking so violent that people tossed to the ground couldn't get back up. Minutes later, a 50-foot (15-meter) wall of Pacific Ocean crashed into the adjacent port of Callao, killing all but 200 of its 5,000 inhabitants. Bodies washed ashore for weeks.
Plenty of earthquakes have shaken Peru's capital in the 266 years since that fateful night of Oct. 28, 1746, though none with anything near the violence.
The relatively long "seismic silence" means that Lima, set astride one of the most volatile ruptures in the Earth's crust, is increasingly at risk of being hammered by a one-two, quake-tsunami punch as calamitous as what devastated Japan last year and traumatized Santiago, Chile, and its nearby coast a year earlier, seismologists say.
Yet this city of 9 million people is sorely unprepared. From densely clustered, unstable housing to a dearth of first-responders, its acute vulnerability is unmatched regionally. Peru's National Civil Defense Institute forecasts up to 50,000 dead, 686,000 injured and 200,000 homes destroyed if Lima is hit by a magnitude-8.0 quake.
"In South America, it is the most at risk," said architect Jose Sato, director of the Center for Disaster Study and Prevention, or PREDES, a non-governmental group financed by the charity Oxfam that is working on reducing Lima's quake vulnerability.
Lima is home to a third of Peru's population, 70 percent of its industry, 85 percent of its financial sector, its entire central government and the bulk of international commerce.
"A quake similar to what happened in Santiago would break the country economically," said Gabriel Prado, Lima's top official for quake preparedness. That quake had a magnitude of 8.8.
Quakes are frequent in Peru, with about 170 felt by people annually, said Hernando Tavera, director of seismology at the country's Geophysical Institute. A big one is due, and the chances of it striking increase daily, he said. The same collision of tectonic plates responsible for the most powerful quake ever recorded, a magnitude-9.5 quake that hit Chile in 1960, occurs just off Lima's coast, where about 3 inches of oceanic crust slides annually beneath the continent.
A 7.5-magnitude quake in 1974 a day's drive from Lima in the Cordillera Blanca range killed about 70,000 people as landslides buried villages. Seventy-eight people died in the capital. In 2007, a 7.9-magnitude quake struck even closer, killing 596 people in the south-central coastal city of Pisco.
A shallow, direct hit is the big danger.
More than two in five Lima residents live either in rickety structures built on unstable, sandy soil and wetlands, which amplify a quake's destructive power, or in hillside settlements that sprang up over a generation as people fled conflict and poverty in Peru's interior. Thousands are built of colonial-era adobe.
Most quake-prone countries have rigorous building codes to resist seismic events. In Chile, if engineers and builders don't adhere to them they can face prison. Not so in Peru.
"People are building with adobe just as they did in the 17th century," said Carlos Zavala, director of Lima's Japanese-Peruvian Center for Seismic Investigation and Disaster Mitigation.
Environmental and human-made perils compound the danger.
Situated in a coastal desert, Lima gets its water from a single river, the Rimac, which a landslide could easily block. That risk is compounded by a containment pond full of toxic heavy metals from an old mine that could rupture and contaminate the Rimac, said Agustin Gonzalez, a PREDES official advising Lima's government.
Most of Lima's food supply arrives via a two-lane highway that parallels the river, another potential chokepoint.
Lima's airport and seaport, the key entry points for international aid, are also vulnerable. Both are in Callao, which seismologists expect to be scoured by a 20-foot (6-meter) tsunami if a big quake is centered offshore, the most likely scenario.
Mayor Susana Villaran's administration is Lima's first to organize a quake-response and disaster-mitigation plan. A February 2011 law obliged Peru's municipalities to do so. Yet Lima's remains incipient.
"How are the injured going to be attended to? What is the ability of hospitals to respond? Of basic services? Water, energy, food reserves? I don't think this is being addressed with enough responsibility," said Tavera of the Geophysical Institute.
By necessity, most injured will be treated where they fall, but Peru's police have no comprehensive first-aid training. Only Lima's 4,000 firefighters, all volunteers, have such training, as does a 1,000-officer police emergency squadron.
But because the firefighters are volunteers, a quake's timing could influence rescue efforts.
"If you go to a fire station at 10 in the morning there's hardly anyone there," said Gonzalez, who advocates a full-time professional force.
In the next two months, Lima will spend nearly $2 million on the three fire companies that cover downtown Lima, its first direct investment in firefighters in 25 years, Prado said. The national government is spending $18 million citywide for 50 new fire trucks and ambulances.
But where would the ambulances go?
A 1997 study by the Pan American Health Organization found that three of Lima's principal public hospitals would likely collapse in a major quake, but nothing has been done to reinforce them.
And there are no free beds. One public hospital, Maria Auxiliadora, serves more than 1.2 million people in Lima's south but has just 400 beds, and they are always full.
Contingency plans call for setting up mobile hospitals in tents in city parks. But Gonzalez said only about 10,000 injured could be treated.
Water is also a worry. The fire threat to Lima is severe — from refineries to densely-backed neighborhoods honeycombed with colonial-era wood and adobe. Lima's firefighters often can't get enough water pressure to douse a blaze.
"We should have places where we can store water not just to put out fires but also to distribute water to the population," said Sato, former head of the disaster mitigation department at Peru's National Engineering University.
The city's lone water-and-sewer utility can barely provide water to one-tenth of Lima in the best of times.
Another big concern: Lima has no emergency operations center and the radio networks of the police, firefighters and the Health Ministry, which runs city hospitals, use different frequencies, hindering effective communication.
Nearly half of the city's schools require a detailed evaluation to determine how to reinforce them against collapse, Sato said.
A recent media blitz, along with three nationwide quake-tsunami drills this year, helped raise consciousness. The city has spent more than $77 million for retention walls and concrete stairs to aid evacuation in hillside neighborhoods, Prado said, but much more is needed.
At the biggest risk, apart from tsunami-vulnerable Callao, are places like Nueva Rinconada.
A treeless moonscape in the southern hills, it is a haven for economic refugees who arrive daily from Peru's countryside and cobble together precarious homes on lots they scored into steep hillsides with pickaxes.
Engineers who have surveyed Nueva Rinconada call its upper reaches a death trap. Most residents understand this but say they have nowhere else to go.
Water arrives in tanker trucks at $1 per 200 liters (52 gallons) but is unsafe to drink unless boiled. There is no sanitation; people dig their own latrines. There are no streetlamps, and visibility is erased at night as Lima's bone-chilling fog settles into the hills.
Homes of wood, adobe and straw matting rest on piled-rock foundations that engineers say will crumble and rain down on people below in a major quake.
A recently built concrete retaining wall at the valley's head lies a block beneath the thin-walled wood home of Hilarion Lopez, a 55-year-old janitor and community leader. It might keep his house from sliding downhill, but boulders resting on uphill slopes could shake loose and crush him and his neighbors.
"We've made holes and poured concrete around some of the more unstable boulders," he says, squinting uphill in a strong late morning sun.
He's not so worried if a quake strikes during daylight.

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Argentina import controls put brake on bike sales

Summer has arrived in the Southern Hemisphere, and bicyclists all over the Argentine capital have hit the streets to enjoy the warm weather. That means this should be peak season for bicycle manufacturers and shops all over town, but the ride hasn't been so smooth this year.
Instead, economic dysfunction has curtailed any possible boom. Cardboard boxes full of partially assembled mountain bikes, missing a pedal, seat or handlebars and unable to be sold, gather dust in a corner of the Musetta bicycle factory in suburban Buenos Aires. Meanwhile, they're running out of stock at Nodari Bikes, a neighborhood cycling store.
Civic leaders have tried to make Buenos Aires a bicycle-friendly city, but that's been stymied by another government initiative — protectionist import bans designed to spur domestic production that have instead strangled supplies of everything from bananas to prescription drugs.
Enacted by the national government on Feb. 1, the new laws block or restrict the importing of some 600 goods while requiring foreign companies to partner with local manufacturers. That's helped Argentina's domestic manufacturing capacity rebound, while unemployment has dropped and the nation's balance of trade has improved. But many products are also hard to find, pushing up prices and further heating up inflation.
For cyclists, fewer bikes are available because the business mostly relies on foreign-made parts.
"We're selling the little that remains and sort of waiting to see what happens next," said bike shop owner Claudio Nodari. "It's too bad because biking was growing — this was a moment of opportunity."
A record 1.8 million bicycles were sold in Argentina in 2011, and the industry had predicted sales would surpass 2 million bikes in 2012, producing an estimated $510 million in revenue.
Now, the Argentine Bicycle Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimates some 1.6 million bikes will be sold in 2012. And that number would have been lower but for a Buenos Aires city program that offered loans of up to $600 per bike purchase, the group says. In its first week, the financing program drew 4,000 requests at the 21 bike shops taking part.
If anything, Argentines have learned how to be creative, as President Cristina Fernandez imposes tight currency controls and other economic measures designed to fight high inflation and stop the flight of dollars.
Musetta owner Adrian Giuliani has had to call off plans to expand into producing high-end specialty and mountain bikes. Instead, the factory is making parts such as seat posts specifically hit by the import restrictions and also turning out simpler bikes.
"Instead of expanding to new models, we are producing many children's and cruiser bikes that don't require many imported parts. And business is steady," Giuliani said.
At manufacturer Bicicletas Enrique in the northwest Argentine city of Corboda, president Enrique Espanon says business will end the year down 15 percent from 2011. The manufacturer depends on foreign parts for much of its production.
Business leaders say the controls have forced companies of all types to come up with creative strategies just to keep going. Italian car maker Porsche, for example, is exporting Argentine wine, while BMW is exporting rice to meet a required balance in selling foreign- and domestically-produced goods.
Argentina's bike sector, however, wasn't prepared to export or otherwise meet local demand, which meant the price of bikes and bike parts has shot up and stock is dwindling, says the bicycle chamber's president, Claudio Canaglia.
At Nodari, a Mongoose bicycle that retails for $150 in the United States now costs the equivalent of $700 in Argentina.
Virtually all high-end bikes use imported parts, made mostly in Asia. When Nodari's shop can't find such foreign parts, it goes to local manufacturers, despite the inconsistent quantity and quality of their products, the store's owner said.
"I've had some trouble getting parts for my bike," says cyclist Diana June Tansey. "It took three stores to find a tube, and then I paid $20 for it, when they normally cost $5 to $10."
Hybrid bikes ridden by many for recreation also require a portion of imported parts, though not as many. Canaglia says that out of the 42 parts that make up a hybrid bike, just one or two may be imported, such as a chain, sprocket or handlebars. But without those parts, the bike is useless and unsellable, he says.
"Last year, imports represented just 11 percent of the industry," Canaglia said. "But that 11 percent is blocking our entire economy."
On the street, the restrictions mean more cyclists riding retro beach bikes with fat seats and wide handlebars, while those who want a higher-end ride suffer.
"It's like going from a Mercedes Benz to a 1970 Citroen," complained Nodari, the bicycle shop owner. "It's taking our business back to where it began."
Following a regional trend, Argentines have been increasingly giving up cars for bicycles, with the number of cyclists in Buenos Aires alone rising from 30,000 to 150,000 over the past three years, the city's government says. Bike sales surpassed used car sales in 2011.
Through its "Better on Bike" program, Buenos Aires has built almost 50 miles of bike lanes since 2009, and more than 30 miles are planned for next year.
"The world's biggest cities, such as Paris, New York, Barcelona and Bogota, have adopted the bicycle," said Sonia Fakiel, a spokeswoman for the city's transportation agency. "It's a strategic way to ease traffic and promote sustainability."
Most cyclists haven't let the restrictions stop them from riding, as the army of bikes on the city's streets this summer proves.
"For so long the people didn't have anywhere to ride their bikes," Nodari said. "But now, with all these bike lanes, they're bringing in grandpa's old bike and asking me to fix it up.

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